My Article in Dainik Jagran 20th November 2021 (Translated Text Below)
When Narendra Modi watchers woke up on the morning of Guru Nanak Jayanti, they were expecting to see images of the Prime Minister visiting some Gurdwara. In other years, he has been to the Rakabganj Gurdwara in Delhi. With Punjab elections in a few months people did not rule out his visiting Amritsar. Since Mr Modi is known for doing the unexpected one could not rule out his crossing the Kartarpur Corridor, reopened a day ago, to pray at Gurdwara Darbar Sahib. So, when there was an announcement of the PM Addressing the nation at 9.00 AM everyone was flummoxed.
After his opening remarks about GurParab, when the Prime Minister started to talk about farmers, the various measures taken by his government for the benefit of the agricultural community, it was difficult to guess where he was leading. He started by explaining the background of the farm laws, expert consultations and his concern for the small and marginal farmers and thanked large sections of farmers across the country welcoming the reforms before coming to the point about farmers’ agitation. He categorically stated that it was only a small section of farmers of a few states who were opposing the legislation. Even there he talked about the government’s efforts at negotiation to find an amicable solution by keeping the laws on hold, hinting that the agitating farmers were being unreasonable and stubborn. So everyone was taken aback when in a 180 degree turn he announced the government had decided to repeal the three farm laws in deference to the wishes of the motley group who were opposed to the laws.
On social media there was shock and disbelief at the announcement. If Demonetisation was a bolt from the blue, this act of capitulation came as an anti-climax. Both Modi supporters and opponents were at a loss for an explanation. Even those who ought to have been happy with the retraction could not understand why a government that. Is known to strong willed suddenly appeared weak-kneed. In recent months, the farmers' agitation was looking like it was losing momentum. The main actors were less talkative and belligerent than they were a year ago. Cracks were showing the unity among various groups within the Samyukta Kissan Morcha. The Supreme Court began to lose patience with the farmers for blocking highways. Therefore, the theory that the Government was forced to withdraw because of the unrelenting pressure of protestors was too simplistic to accept.
The obvious conclusion was that the decision was taken with an eye on the forthcoming state elections in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand where the farm laws would have an impact. While it was a big issue in Punjab – in UP it would have affected the western parts and in Uttarakhand the Terai region. But electoral gains alone would not have forced such a major decision on which Narendra Modi had invested huge political capital. Therefore, there must have been other overriding considerations that forced the government to take this massive U-turn.
One conjecture is the government was worried about the fall-out of the agitation on national security. Captain Amarinder Singh for one has been repeatedly highlighting the infiltration of Khalistani and Pakistani elements among the agitators, which could risk the stability of Punjab and push it towards the 1980s kind of turbulent situation. It is also known that the influence of these elements extend into the Terai region which has a sizable population of Sikh farmers. Given the developments in Pakistan, which could easily spill over to Kashmir, the government could not afford to take that risk. Hence, this could be a move to checkmate these elements and pave the way for an alliance between Shiromani Akali Dal, BJP and Amarinder Singh’s new outfit to strengthen the nationalistic forces in Punjab. A collateral benefit of this step would be to dilute the influence of the Aam Aadmi Party whose trust quotient with BJP is even lower than that of Congress.
Whether this will yield electoral dividends for the BJP only time will tell because many other factors will be at play. In Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand there is definitely an element of anti-incumbency. While in UP the Yogi government seems to be ahead in the race at the moment, one cannot deny the traction that Akhilesh Yadav is able to generate on the ground which can gather further steam in the run up to the polls. In Uttarakhand, BJP has its own set of problems with frequent changes in Chief Ministers. Finally, in Punjab how well a combination of SAD and Amarinder Singh’s as alliance partners would work out is not above doubt. So, it would be naïve to see this as an ‘election masterstroke’ considering the potential downsides.
The bigger worry, however, is what this would do to the Modi Government’s effectiveness for the remaining part of its term. This roll-back would send out signals to the opposition that this government can be forced to buckle down under protracted pressure. There was a foretaste of it when the government hurriedly dropped the prices of Petrol and Diesel after the mixed results of the recent byelections. With a series of states going to polls in the next two years that would seriously limit the government’s ability to push through major reforms. Besides, some of its earlier decisions such as the CAA, Article 370, Labour legislations may get revisited. With tensions on the external front as well and the country still recovering from the aftermath of Covid and no guarantee that there will not be a third wave, the government’s ability to bat on the front-foot has been compromised.
Interestingly, even after announcing the decision to take back the laws the Prime Minister emphasised his conviction about the merits of the acts and regretted that the agitating farmers refused to see the benefits that were clear as daylight. But, having said that he would also know that there is no way these acts can be reintroduced in a hurry. Certainly not before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The biggest loser from this development will be the future of agricultural reforms in the country.
Article First Published in Hindi in Dainik Jagran - the above is a translation